Visualizing of σσ-algebras as "information"

机器算法验证 probability
2022-03-29 23:31:37

Let (Ω,F,μ) be a probability space and GF a σ-algebra. I have seen it referred to many times that G is the "information" which is available to us. I think I kinda understand it, but I am not satisfied in my own understanding of it.

Let us say that A is an event and G={,A,Ac,Ω}. Let ω be a sample point of the experiment. We do not know which of the events in G contain ω. Now Ω certaintly contains ω, but we already knew that, so we do not gain any insight. However, either A or Ac will contain ω. If we somehow knew that A contains ω, then that gives us additional insight.

1) Does anyone have a better way of thinking of G as our "information"?

2) If GG, then how do we think of G as having "more information"? Obviously, it is a larger σ-algebra, and it has more events, but ignoring set theory, what should one's intuition be for G?


Follow up question.

3) Let ξ:ΩR be a G-measurable. I have seen people refer to ξ as "a random variable whose information is known from G", or something along those lines. What is the motivation for this?

1个回答

G is our information in the sense that for all AG, we know whether ωA.

Let us use the Tickets in a box metaphor, extended to handle σ-algebras so that the ticket mentions for all AF whether the outcome represented by the ticket belongs to A. Now, say that someone else picks the ticket and we don't see it. For any AG we may ask whether the ticket says that the outcome is in A and the person holding the ticket tells us. However, if we ask about some AFG, we hear "Sorry, you don't know that".

Larger σ-algebra is more information

This also explains why moving to GG means gaining new information -- now we still get answers to [XA?]-questions about anyAG and additionally to some new questions -- those where AGG.

Random variables

So, the tickets also contains the values of random variables. If the random variable X is G-measurable, we get answers to all our questions about its value, such as [is X equal to 3], since by G-measurability of X, {ωX(ω)=3}G. Or, to handle the delicacies of the uncountable case, we may also ask [Is X in the set B]? (Since for any particular value we think about, the probability of hearing "yes" may be 0 and that would be boring). So, in this sense we have all information about the realization of the random variable, if our information is G and the RV is G-measurable.

Caveat: the definition of measurability of random variables restricts the sets B we may ask about. [Is X(ω)B] is answered if B is a measurable set in the value space of the random variable (usually Borel σ-algebra is assumed with R without mentioning). So, in the uncountable (nondiscrete X) case, don't ask whether X is in the Vitali set or the oracle holding the ticket shall be mad.

Reference

I did not cite any reference in the answer but I consulted

  • J. Jacod and P.E. Protter. Probability essentials (2nd edition), Springer, 2004

about the definition of measurability of random variables. (And have learned these things from the same book previously, if I recall correctly).